AIC Fertiliser Update: 18 March 2026

AIC Members will be aware of the growing tension following recent events in the Gulf and the wider region.

What are the current fertiliser developments?

Following recent tensions in the Gulf region, the Agricultural Industries Confederation (AIC) is closely monitoring fertiliser availability, particularly urea supplies from the southern Mediterranean. This follows reported constraints on fertiliser exports from Gulf states which, while not direct suppliers to the UK market, account for approximately one-fifth of global urea production. Disruptions to these supplies can therefore lead to displacement within the global market, contributing to tighter availability and upward pressure on prices. 

The UK accounts for around 1% of the global fertiliser market (see below chart). This means major buyers such as Brazil and India, which have the capacity to outbid other importers for significant cargo volumes, are likely to be prioritised for loading slots and access to product from alternative producing countries. As a result, intensifying competitive pressures for supply. 

How is the oil market being affected?

Recent disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have led to an increase in global oil prices, driven largely by shipping delays and precautionary shutdowns in the region. This has resulted in higher energy costs, which may add to existing volatility in nitrogen production and international freight. These developments are being monitored, and their potential implications for input markets remain under review.

What is the Gulf region’s role in fertiliser trade?

While the UK does not directly rely on oil or gas from the immediate Gulf region, it is worth noting that 30% of trade in the Gulf relates to nitrogen fertiliser and ammonia. Most of this product is supplied to India and southern Asia.  

What does this mean for UK’s key supply interests?

The UK’s primary interest in the region lies in Egyptian urea and Israeli/Jordanian fertiliser products. These goods are typically transported via ports on the Mediterranean Sea. Meanwhile, the UK’s key Nitrogen suppliers are Europe and the United States.

What does this mean for farmers and growers?

AIC Member companies supplying and distributing fertiliser continue to operate as normal, and the fertiliser market remains stable, with no significant immediate disruption to UK supply anticipated. However, competition for cargoes remains strong, and global supplies are creating upward pressure on availability and pricing linked to limited availability and restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz.  

Farmers and growers with specific questions should speak to their usual suppliers, who can provide the most up-to-date information for their area.