AIC Fertiliser Update: 9 March 2026
AIC Members will be aware of the growing tension following recent events in the Gulf and the wider region.
What are the current fertiliser developments?
Following recent tensions in the Gulf region, AIC is closely monitoring the availability of urea from Egypt. This follows reports that gas supplies from Israel may be restricted as a precaution due to ongoing conflict in Iran. Coupled with reported limitations on fertiliser exports from Gulf states, these factors could contribute to supply pressures within the global fertiliser market.
Countries such as Brazil and India (with large demand), which can outbid others for substantial cargoes, are likely to be prioritised for loading slots and product access from existing alternative producer nations.
How is the oil market being affected?
Recent disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have led to an increase in global oil prices, driven largely by shipping delays and precautionary shutdowns in the region. This has resulted in higher energy costs, which may add to existing volatility in nitrogen production and international freight. These developments are being monitored, and their potential implications for input markets remain under review.
What is the Gulf region’s role in fertiliser trade?
While the United Kingdom (UK) does not directly rely on oil or gas from the immediate Gulf region, it is worth noting that 30% of trade in the Gulf relates to nitrogen fertiliser and ammonia. Most of this product is supplied to China and India.
What does this mean for UK’s key supply interests?
The UK’s primary interest lies in Egyptian and Israeli/Jordanian fertiliser products. These goods are typically transported via ports on the Mediterranean Sea.
What does this mean for farmers and growers?
AIC suppliers and distributors continue to operate as normal, and the fertiliser market remains stable with no immediate significant disruption anticipated to UK supply. Farmers and growers with specific questions should speak to their usual suppliers, who can provide the most up-to-date information for their area.
